Based upon the European Model from Weather Risk Facebook: *** ALERT!** MAJOR SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING FROM WESTERN NC into most of VA into MD DEL PHL eastern PA NJ NYC and ALL of southern NEW ENGLAND JAN 22-23 ( dont NOT get this confused with Sunday JAN 17) THE BIG DOG IS LOOSE The event begins the coming up from the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday night into Friday morning spreading northeast from Tennessee and North Carolina into Southeast Kentucky West Virginia and all of Virginia. From there heavy snow will spread steadily north eastward reaching DCA by Friday evening and reaching Philly & NYC by early Saturday morning January 23. This is a major event as the European model with its amazing consistency shows large snowfall amounts of 10-20 20 inches covering large portions of Virginia up into the big cities of the northeast and Southern New England. SEE IMAGE #1 As I stated in the video on Saturday evening there is a strong analog to this type of weather system that brings a major snowstorm to the Middle Atlantic region in a strong El Nino year. The system I am referring to is the major middle Atlantic snowstorm from FEB 11-12 1983. SEE IMAGE #2 shows position of the surface LOW as it intensifies along the North Carolina Coast and then turns out to sea east of the lower Maryland eastern shore. Based upon the current data it seems that this strong LOW will NOT head up towards Cape cod and as a result the heaviest snows will only reach into Southern New England. The two other primary medium range weather models - the Canadian and the GFS - continue to handle the system quite poorly and because of their inconsistencies WXRISK is rejecting the Canadian and GFS model solutions. One of the signs that forecasters use to figure out whether not a model makes sense or is consistent is two maps into regular or operational solution against its own ENSEMBLE mean. Once more the GFS model latest run has a solution which is vastly different from what the GFS ensemble is depicting and this is also the case with the Canadian model.
Damn .. if we're gonna get pummeled, least they can do is throw it at us during the week so I can't get to work :rant:
https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman Alan--Weather Risk guy says maybe 10-20" will fall in Manhattan. https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...195_971468759567049_8525099307062005127_o.jpg
Alan --here is the update just released. https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/ It appears you are in the Mid-Atlantic area which is projected to get snowfall belly high to a tall dog with the possibility of a historic snow event. Looks like 17" for Manhattan and maybe 24" for Philly. https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...195_971468759567049_8525099307062005127_o.jpg
Local Wunderground forecast for me, 18944 (between Philly and Allentown), shows it starting Friday morning and ending Sunday morning. Highs of 33* means heavy, wet snow. I went to move my Kubota snowthrower from behind the garage, but it's still a muddy mess.... I'll get to it Mon or Tues. We barely had any snow this season. A slight covering last week and a bit more today. I'm almost looking forward to a good one, but hoping it doesn't take the power out for an extended time. Ski's are ready!!
If I read the map correctly, Pittsburg may be in the 33-36" snowfall area. There is a lot of time left and things could change. These are model maps and not official forecasts.
I'm just above the 26" on the map, just west of the NJ line. https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/11-12zeurosnow.jpg That's a LOT of snow! Gonna be a busy weekend with the ole Kubota. My workplace is a pita concerning days off due to snow. They expect us to use vaca time if we call out. Really sucks if the power goes out for a couple of days. Last year we ran the office for nearly a week off of one generator and extension cords down every hallway. Reminded me of the video from John Fogerty, 'The Old Man Down the Road' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbSGMRZsN4Q
Walt. I'm right in the 26" area. Its funny how our local weather men are saying 40* for Thursday and Friday. But then again they didn't say anything about the snow today. They try to tell you how its going to be in 5 days when they can't tell what tomorrow will bring. Then they tell you what happened yesterday. Can you say Jackasses ???
Here is the National Weather Service map for next Saturday. The low pressure center is near where it is located on the map above from Weather Risk. This is not good news for the Mid Atlantic. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=ter
I think we have been pretty fortunate this Winter so far. Here's the bottom line, we'll know pretty much what is gonna happen by Wednesday. Until then, I don't trust the weather Geeks.:laugh:
Yeah, we're often on the rain/snow line. The forecasters are afraid of the 'c' word (commitment). It could go either way. I'll prepare for the worst, but it could easily be a rain event. Does Buffalo NY have issues with downed power lines? or are they already secured/underground?
This is why I'm in Florida for the wintah.:grin: All we have in the Ft. Myers/Cape Coral area is two tornadoes within a week!
Latest Model Run Continues: Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 4 hrs . *** ALERT !! ** ALERT !!** ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAJOR (possibly Historic ) SNOWSTORM FOR JAN 22-23 for MOST of VA & MD eastern half of WVA central/ eastern PA all of NJ NYC southern NY and southern half of New England 0z Monday ( early Mon am) EUROPEAN COMES IN COLDER ALL SNOW FOR RIC ... shows 22" for RIC !! .... 26" for DCA ...20 "for CHO ..16 -18" for ROA LYH 30" over BAL ...12" lower MD eastern shore 6-10" for hampton roads SEE IMAGE #1 What we are looking at .... according to the European model is a historic snowstorm. The European model continues to show run after run almost the exact same scenario. This is the model which correctly forecasted hurricane Joaquin to NOT hit the East Coast ...which correctly forecasted SANDY to hit Atlantic City 8 days before made landfall. I could go on and on about the European model's superior performance when it comes to East Coast winter storms and hurricanes. Unlike the other weather models... the European model and it's ensemble continues to show the same scenario for the past 7 model runs. As we get closer to the event this model's consistency continues to be extremely impressive. IMAGE #2 is the ACTUAL snow map from a huge snowstorm for FEB 1983 Also a strong el nineo winter Wxrisk.com's image #1 = https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...271_971928289521096_2653612946630340894_o.jpg Wxrisk.com's image #2 = https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...424_971928329521092_1754505237839359747_o.jpg
The American GFS model is now beginning to come into agreement with the European model solution. Plus the NYC Mayor is drafting Larry out of retirement once again for this snow event. The last time this happened was for Hurricane Sandy. The Mayor must think conditions are going to be bad.uzzled:
